Wicomico County Public Schools | EFMP FY2024 into “kindergarten and first grade-eligible” births based on current age requirements for these two grades. c) 2021 preliminary birth data show lower births during the pandemic. We adjusted our birth projections accordingly and this shows lower school enrollment projections in future years. Data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) confirm the decline in births which are most likely due to a combination of the pandemic and lower birth rates. d) Compulsory Attendance Considerations: Increased age of compulsory attendance to age 18 for school year 2022/2023 and beyond as stipulated by legislation passed by the Maryland General Assembly in 2012 (SB362). e) Private school enrollment: Enrollment was higher in the 2021/22 and 2022/23 school years compared to 2019/20 school year, the year before the pandemic. This increase in private school enrollments will impact public-school enrollments in the short term and if this trend continues, public school enrollments are projected to fall over the long term. f) Homeschooled children: School enrollment data show a significant increase in the number of homeschooled children in school-year 2020/21 and 2021/22, if this trend continues, public school enrollments would be impacted in future years. Enclosed are the following materials for your review: 1. Public school enrollments by grade a. Historical enrollments, 2012 - 2022 b. Historical 2022 and projected 2023 - 2032 enrollments 2. Historical grade succession ratios 3. Alternative public school enrollment projection scenarios based on the historical grade succession ratios (item 2 above). The ratios selected in preparing the public school enrollment scenarios, item 1b above, are underlined. 4. The ratios of kindergarten-to-births and first grade-to-births, historical and projected. This page also includes birth data transformed from calendar year to kindergarten-eligible births and first grade-to-birth ratios (2023 to 2032), used in preparing the public school enrollment projections (item 1b above). The Maryland Department of Planning recognizes MSDE K-12 September 2022 enrollment figures as the official enrollment for 2022/23 school year. We are providing this information electronically to you and your Education Facilities Planner as an aid in your school enrollment planning processes. Projections used in your Educational 228
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