WCPS ENROLLMENT & CAPACITY ANALYSIS 6.1 30,000 FOOT VIEW Figure 1 displays system wide enrollments over the past seven years plus projects out the next ten. This higher level view clearly shows the impact of COVID on enrollment in 2020 but indicates that overall enrollments are slowly returning to pre-COVID levels at a gradual rate exceeding the state rated capacity (SRC) in 2023. While this view is important, it does not allow us to see how the individual school groupings will be affected. Figure 2 takes the data from figure 1 and disseminates it across the three educational levels (Elementary, Middle & High). The yellow highlighted circle indicates an enrollment “bubble” that is making its way through the entire system. The increased enrollment bubble started in the elementary schools around 2012. The bubble exited in 2018 but State birth rates were indicating a second potential "bubble" in purple entering elementary schools starting in 2023. Data shows a slight increase but the States review of 2022 preliminary birth data shows lower births during the pandemic, leading to lower school enrollment projections in future years. In 2018 the enrollment bubble began to affect the middle schools. The impact has increased the total number of middle schoolers by almost 150 students in 2019. COVID can account for lower enrollments across all educational levels in 2020 except for in middle school where there was growth due to the enrollment bubble. While the initial increased number students was drastic, the graph shows that the total enrollments did not surpass the total available SRC. During FY19, WCPS implemented enrollment balancing effort to ensure the "bubble" was more evenly distributed between the middle schools in order to keep each school under capacity. In reviewing the individual school report cards it is apparent that this effort succeeded. Figure 1 213
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