Wicomico County Public Schools | EFMP FY2025 projections in future years. Data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) confirm the decline in births which are most likely due to a combination of the pandemic and lower birth rates. d) Compulsory Attendance Considerations: Increased age of compulsory attendance to age 18 for school year 2023/2024 and beyond as stipulated by legislation passed by the Maryland General Assembly in 2012 (SB362). e) Private school enrollment has been higher since the pandemic. This increase in private school enrollments will impact public-school enrollments in the short term and if this trend continues, public school enrollments are projected to fall over the long term. f) Homeschooling data shows a significant increase post pandemic, if this trend continues, public school enrollments would be impacted. Enclosed are the following materials for your review: 1. Public school enrollments by grade a. Historical enrollments, 2013 - 2023 b. Historical 2023 and projected 2024 - 2033 enrollments 2. Historical grade succession ratios 3. Alternative public school enrollment projection scenarios based on the historical grade succession ratios (item 2 above). The ratios selected in preparing the public school enrollment scenarios, item 1b above, are underlined. 4. The ratios of kindergarten-to-births and first grade-to-births, historical and projected. This page also includes birth data transformed from calendar year to kindergarten-eligible births and first grade-to-birth ratios (2024 to 2033), used in preparing the public school enrollment projections (item 1b above). The Maryland Department of Planning recognizes MSDE K-12 September 2023 enrollment figures as the official enrollment for 2023/24 school year. We are providing this information electronically to you and your Education Facilities Planner as an aid in your school enrollment planning processes. Projections used in your Educational Facilities Master Plan (EFMP) must be within five percent of those generated by MDP. Please send your school system's official written response to our projections. Your reply must include a copy of the school district’s enrollment projections. If the difference between your projections and MDP’s is greater than five percent, we will schedule a meeting with you to discuss the differences so that we can agree on the projections to 224
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