WCPS ENROLLMENT & CAPACITY ANALYSIS 6.1 30,000 FOOT VIEW Figure 1 displays system wide enrollments over the past seven years plus projects out the next ten. This higher level view clearly shows the impact of COVID on enrollment in 2020 but indicates that overall enrollments just about returned to pre-COVID levels in 2023 and exceeded the state rated capacity (SRC). With typical enrollment growth averaging 281 over the past 3 years, 2024 marked significant unexpected enrollment growth with 562 more students as of Sept. 30, 2024 data. While this view is important, it does not allow us to see how the individual school groupings will be affected. Figure 2 takes the data from figure 1 and disseminates it across the three educational levels (Elementary, Middle & High). The yellow circle indicates an enrollment “bubble” that is making its way through the system. The increased enrollment bubble started in the elementary schools around 2012. The bubble exited in 2018 but State birth rates are indicating a second potential "bubble" in purple entering elementary schools with continued growth in the future at the elementary level. Data shows an increase and the States review of MDH 2022 actual birth data shows higher births post pandemic, leading to higher school enrollment projections in future years. In FY26 WCPS will implement a School Boundary Adjustment with the primary focus of better balancing elementary enrollments across the district. In 2018 the enrollment bubble affected the middle schools. The impact increased the total number of middle schoolers by almost 150 students in 2019. COVID can account for lower enrollments across all educational levels in 2020 except for in middle school where there was growth due to the enrollment bubble. While the initial increased number of students was high, the graph shows that the total enrollments did not surpass the total available SRC. During FY19, WCPS implemented an enrollment balancing effort at the middle school level to ensure the "bubble" was more evenly distributed between the middle schools in order to keep each school under capacity. In reviewing the individual school report cards it is apparent that this effort succeeded. Figure 1 211
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