WCPS ENROLLMENT & CAPACITY ANALYSIS 6.1 30,000 FOOT VIEW Figure 1 displays system wide enrollments over the past seven years plus projects out the next ten. This higher level view clearly shows the impact of COVID on enrollment in 2020 but indicates that overall enrollments just returned to pre-COVID levels and exceeded the state rated capacity (SRC) in 2023. While 2024 marked significant unexpected enrollment growth with 562 more students, enrollments as of September 30, 2025 data show a decrease to levels more on trend, it is unclear if this will continue. While this view is important, it does not allow us to see how the individual school groupings will be affected. Figure 2 takes the data from figure 1 and disseminates it across the three educational levels (Elementary, Middle & High). The yellow circle indicates an enrollment “bubble” that is making its way out of the system. The increased enrollment bubble exited the elementary schools around 2018 but Wicomico’s projections are indicating a second potential "bubble" in purple entering elementary schools with continued growth in the future at the elementary level. State birth data based on 2023 MDH and 2024 CDC WONDER is relatively stable. In FY26 WCPS implemented a School Boundary Adjustment to better balance elementary enrollments across the district. This, paired with enrollment decreases has releaved some fo the overcrowding seen at the elementary level. The enrollment bubble entered the middle school in 2018 and exited in 2022, paired with COVID and lower enrollments across all educational levels, overall enrollment remained below the middle school SRC. During FY19, WCPS implemented an enrollment balancing effort at the middle school level to ensure the "bubble" was more evenly distributed between the middle schools in order to keep each school under capacity. In reviewing the individual school report cards it is apparent that this effort succeeded. Figure 1 223
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