MDP DATA FOR PROJECTED ENROLLMENT 6.4 March 31, 2026 Dr. Micah Stauffer Superintendent Wicomico County Public Schools P. O. Box 1538 Salisbury, MD 21802-1538 Dear Dr. Micah Stauffer Maryland Department of Planning (MDP) is transmitting its annual Public School Enrollment Projections update for your jurisdiction’s review, in accordance with the regulations of the Interagency Commission on School Construction (IAC). MDP is requesting your evaluation and written response to our latest school enrollment projections by April 30, 2026. These enrollment projections are being sent prior to the publication of our report, Public School Enrollment Projections for 2026-2035. A final version of the projections for the entire state, each of the 23 counties and Baltimore City will be posted online on MDP’s website. For planning purposes, these data represent a reasonable scenario for the future, given recent and longterm birth, migration, and demographic patterns. These public school enrollment projections reflect: a) Population Projections: MDP's population projections (total population and school age populations) through 2035 with a 2020 Census baseline. These projections were last revised in December 2025. b) Birth Information: This includes monthly births to 2023 from the Maryland Department of Health (MDH) Division of Vital Statistics, and 2024 births data from Natality on the CDC WONDER Online Database. We are using birth data provided by MDH geocoded for the mother’s jurisdictional address. Births are then estimated for School Year (SY) 2025 and are projected for SY 2026 through SY 2030 based on our latest population projections through 2035. Relevant historical and projected birth projections are then reformulated into “kindergarteneligible” births based on current age requirements. c) Since the pandemic, private schools and homeschooling have grown faster than the public system, indicating that public school enrollment growth will decline if the trend continues. Enclosed are the following materials for your review: 1. Public school enrollments by grade historical enrollments, 2015 – 2025 2. Historical 2025 and projected 2026 - 2035 enrollments 3. Historical grade succession ratios 4. Alternative public school enrollment projection scenarios based on the historical grade succession ratios (item 2 above). The ratios selected in preparing the public school enrollment scenarios, item 1b above, are underlined. 233
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